15 Years to Forge an “Anchor” that Helps to Stabilize South China Sea

By Zhang Junshe

The 50th Association of Southeast Asian Nations（ASEAN） ministerial meeting and China-ASEAN (10+1) Summit, held in Manila in the Philippines on August 5 and 6, both endorsed the framework of the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC). This represents a consensus reached by directly involved countries — including the Philippines — on tackling relevant disputes through peaceful negotiation, and heralds a more stabilized and positive situation in the area.

After the ASEAN-China Ministerial Meeting on August 6^th, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated at a news briefing that the participating parties were all satisfied with the framework of the South China Sea Code of Conduct. At the same time, Wang expressed the hope that the COC negotiation and maritime pragmatic cooperation can work together and support each other like “two wheels”.

Building the Accord was no easy task

The COC framework is a multi-faceted document that addresses the interests and concerns of all stakeholders. It not only meets the common expectations of countries in the region, but also expresses the wish of China and ASEAN countries to settle disputes through dialogues and negotiations, so as to sustain peace and stability in the South China Sea.

To promote the COC China has proposed a three-step plan which has gained support from ASEAN.

●First, a consensus on the COC framework should be reached by foreign ministers of all the ASEAN countries, and there should be a declaration that a further virtual negotiation will be launched this year at the appropriate time once the necessary preparations have been completed.

●Second, a discussion on the method, principles and promotion plan of the COC should be implemented at the meeting of joint working group of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea(DOC) at the end of August.

●Third, subject to the precondition that there should be no substantial disturbance and a reasonably stable situation in the South China Sea, national leaders of China and the ASEAN countries should officially announce that the COC negotiations will pass on to the next step at the China- ASEAN Summit in November, once the basic preparations are complete.

It has been no easy task to agree on the framework of the COC. In 2002, the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) was signed between China and ASEAN, “desiring to enhance favorable conditions for a peaceful and durable solution of differences and disputes among the countries concerned”. The COC is an extension and development of the DOC.

Over the past 15 years China and ASEAN have succeeded in minimizing conflict and sustaining regional peace, stability and economic prosperity by applying the DOC. It has become one of the main platforms for protecting   stability in the South China Sea and for enhancing cooperation.

Through the joint efforts of China and ASEAN, the 14th Senior Officials’ Meeting of the DOC, which was held in Guiyang, China in May this year, finally approved the framework of the COC.

On this occasion the China-ASEAN Ministerial Meeting re-recognized and reaffirmed the COC.

Stable situation in the South China Sea

For a period of several years, as a result of incitement by out-of the region powers, the Aquino administration of the Philippines created conflicts with China over the South China Sea issue.

It unilaterally instigated the arbitration case under UNCLOS which China has always claimed illegitimate. This action not only violated the bilateral agreement signed by China and the Philippines, but also went against the regional regulation embedded in the DOC and the international rules including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It caused deterioration in the bilateral relations between China and the Philippines and hurt the stable situation on the South China Sea issue.

Since last October, with Philippine president Duterte’s visit to China, the relationship between the two countries turned around. Dialogues and negotiations have been back on the agenda, and a bilateral negotiation mechanism has been established.

The mechanism successfully produced a first meeting in May this year. Through the joint efforts of China and the ASEAN nations, including the Philippines, the situation in the South China Sea has gradually stabilized.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano, asserted on 8^th August in Manila that peace and stability are the most important things in the South China Sea, and that the Philippines does not want to see a recurrence of the South China Sea dispute.

China has played “a very positive role in the (Southeast Asian) region.” “Definitely China will be a better driver for a socio-economic development in the region,” Cayetano told a news conference at the end of the series of ASEAN and related foreign ministers’ meetings.

Cayetano stressed the need to maintain stability in the region by focusing on positive development, adding that there is now relative peace in the South China Sea.

“I can honestly say that the relationship between ASEAN and China has improved and been strengthened over this ministerial meetings,” Cayetano said “all the positive sides China has given to the relationship with ASEAN will not be disturbed” because of the disputes there. “We do not allow this to disturb our good relationships,” he said.

On China-Philippines ties, he said, ” we are proud of our relationship with China.”

The US, Japan and Australia made a statement at the ASEAN Plus Three Foreign Minister’s Meeting urging the Philippines to revive the South China Sea Arbitration case.

In response, Cayetano asserted that the Philippines will respect the stance of other countries, but that the Philippines is an independent sovereign country and will not be told what to do by other parties. The Filipinos will decide for themselves what is good for their own country.

Later on, Cayetano advised the media to avoid focusing only on the arbitration report. They should occupy themselves more with the actions the Philippines and China have taken, the direction of development, and the improvement in relations they have achieved.

Troublemakers will not succeed

The successful establishment of the framework of the South China Sea Code of Conduct will help to put an end to the attempts of outsiders to hijack the relationship between China and ASEAN through the South China Sea Arbitration case.

It will also make it harder for those parties to succeed in their attempts to harm regional peace and stability by stirring up disputes in the area.

The ASEAN foreign ministers’ joint communique published on 6^th August highlighted the progress in relations between China and ASEAN, and gave a positive appraisal to the cooperation between the two. “Deeper China-ASEAN cooperation” was the keynote of the communique.

Even though it still contained some comments on the South China Sea, these were significantly shorter than on previous occasions.

Although one or two countries requested that the joint communique should express concerns over “land reclamation and other activities” in communique, it was no longer the issue of deep concern that it has been in the past.

In fact, only mild expressions maintaining references to issues such as references to issues such as militarization was included.

This is a symbol of a big stride that China and ASEAN have made in maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea.

China regards ASEAN as a priority for its neighboring diplomacy strategy and a key region for the Belt and Road initiative. China has been the biggest trade partner of ASEAN for the last 8 years, with the total direct bilateral investment volume exceeding 178 billion US dollars.

Negotiations on an upgraded free trade area have been completed, and a bilateral trade volume goal of 1 trillion US dollars by 2020 has been set.

This year is the 50^th anniversary of ASEAN and the year of China-ASEAN tourism cooperation, and next year is the 15^th anniversary of the establishment of the China-ASEAN strategic partnership.

As a result, the two parties are facing a new opportunity for further development. Continuing to promote maritime cooperation, working together to lead the coordinated development of eastern Asia, and fostering a win-win situation for all are the basic goals of the countries involved.

The South China Sea should be a sea of peace and stability. The recent ASEAN Minister’s meeting held in Manila once again demonstrated that most ASEAN countries have no desire to add fuel to the flames of the issue, and they all want the South China Sea to become an area of peace and cooperation.

External parties should quit their zero-sum thinking and cold-war mentality. They should see the positive changes in the situation in perspective.

They should also respect the joint efforts China and ASEAN have made in sustaining regional peace and stability, rather than acting as troublemakers who interfere and stir up enmity.

Positive developments in China-ASEAN relations do not only benefit those directly involved – they also contribute to regional peace, stability and prosperity.

(By Senior colonel Zhang Junshe, researcher of the Chinese Naval Military Academy, expert in national security, military strategy, China-US relations and world military affairs.)

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