A Small Nuclear Arsenal Is Far From Enough

On July 20, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) under the U.S. Department of Energy revealed the country’s nuclear weapons stockpile, saying that from fiscal year 1994 to fiscal year 2023, the United States dismantled over 12,000 nuclear warheads. As of September 2023, the U.S. nuclear arsenal had been reduced to 3,748 warheads.

The time of the announcement was carefully chosen. On July 22, the second session of the Preparatory Committee for the 11th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons opened in Geneva, Switzerland. By announcing that it had significantly reduced the number of nuclear warheads, the United States apparently intended to exert pressure on other nuclear-weapon states.

Despite the decrease in its nuclear warheads, the United States’ spending in the nuclear weapons sector increased to $51.5 billion last year, according to the 2023 annual global nuclear forces report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on June 16. This figure surpasses the combined annual nuclear weapons expenditures of the other nuclear-weapon states and represents a 17.8-percent increase from the previous year.

The United States is modernizing its nuclear arsenal, replacing older weapons with new ones that have greater accuracy and destructive capability. It is also developing new nuclear weapon delivery platforms, including the land-based Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, the air-based B-21 Raider stealth strategic bomber, the sea-based Columbia class strategic nuclear submarines, and the new AGM-181 long-range cruise missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The same SIPRI report also shows the United States currently has 1,770 deployed nuclear warheads, compared with Russia’s 1,710, France’s 280, the United Kingdom’s 120 and China’s 24.

On July 22, a working paper on China’s No First Use of Nuclear Weapons Initiative was published on the official website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In the document, which was also submitted to the event in Geneva, China encourages the five permanent members of the UN Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States—to negotiate and conclude a treaty on “mutual no first use of nuclear weapons” or issue a political statement in this regard.

The current international nuclear arms control system, led by the United States and Russia, is weakening due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and it’s clear the United States does not want China to become the leader of a new order. China’s initiative would undoubtedly weaken the global military hegemony that the United States has established based on nuclear deterrence.

China’s stance on nuclear weapons has always remained consistent. It adheres to a self-defensive nuclear strategy, maintaining its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security. China has no intention of engaging in an arms race with any country and has committed to a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Additionally, China pledges unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states and in nuclear-weapon-free zones.

Nuclear weapons are a threat to the world, but even more concerning is their use to threaten the world. Given the current international situation, a complete ban on nuclear weapons is unlikely to be achievable. However, if confidence-building measures are established among nuclear-armed states, with a commitment to no first use of nuclear weapons, it would greatly contribute to preventing nuclear wars, building mutual trust, and maintaining strategic stability.

Additionally, the strategies of nuclear-armed states are closely linked to global nuclear non-proliferation. When the international non-proliferation regime was established decades ago, non-nuclear-weapon states agreed to accept and adhere to related international rules based on the commitment of nuclear-weapon states not to use nuclear weapons first and not to use them against non-nuclear-weapon states. This commitment is a necessary step to alleviate the nuclear fears and security concerns of non-nuclear-weapon states and is a fundamental condition for preventing nuclear proliferation.

China’s initiative therefore deserves the fullest support of the international community.