Can Sino-U.S. Military Relations Bring Stability to the Overall Relationship?

By Qin Chuan

China and the U.S. are facing the most complex and sharpest conflict since they established diplomatic ties almost 40 years ago. Since it targeted China as a major strategic rival, the U.S. has done all it can to undermine the rise of China. In addition to the gradually escalating trade war against China, the U.S. has also launched its “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. On the one hand, it frequently dispatches warships to harass China in the South China Sea. On the other hand, it continues to pass bills to extend the relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan.

Under such circumstances, an invitation to James Mattis, the first Secretary of Defense of Trump administration, demonstrates the will on both sides to maintain strategic communication and common management and control of disputes and conflicts.

The Importance of  Sino-U.S. Military Relations

Military diplomacy is an important safeguard to national security. Maintaining normal military exchanges is conducive to normal relations among different countries, and prevent or reduce major incidents caused by misunderstanding or misjudgments in the context of tensions, especially when an armed conflict occur in a safety zone. Sino-U.S. military relations are the most complex and most restrictive bilateral military relations in the world today. For 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the military relationship has lagged behind, to a certain extent becoming a drag on the overall development of the relationship. However military exchanges take on greater importance when tension exists.

In particular, as the trade war escalates it is possible that Sino-U.S. relations may enter a dangerous situation of a major confrontation if military relations deteriorate too.

Mattis’ visit to China included talks between defense ministers, and a special meeting with President Xi Jinping on the 27^th. It is clear that the significance of this visit far exceeds the scope of military relations between the two countries. Xi has said that he hopes the two militaries will strengthen communication, increase mutual trust, extend cooperation, manage and control risks, and promote military ties as a stabilizer of bilateral relations, while the U.S. wants military relations to be a constructive factor in promoting the development of bilateral ties. For all that they are in fierce competition, neither military wants to do fundamental damage to Sino-US relations.

Why no Sensitive Topics During Mattis’ Visit to China?

The main theme of the talks between the two defense ministers was an exchange of views on the military relations between the two countries and issues of common interest. The U.S. revealed that the talks mainly involved military security strategies, the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the DPRK nuclear issue. The U.S. officials stated that the main purpose of Mattis’ visit was to conduct a transparent high-quality strategic dialogue to ease the growing tensions between the two countries. Interestingly, Mattis, who has always been a China hawk, seems to have changed his attitude. During the visit, he said that he would like to listen more to the views of China and understand its position on the strategic intentions of the U.S. There are three reasons for the U.S. de-escalation.

Firstly, the U.S. trade conflict against China was unilateral. Things would only deteriorate if Mattis were to take a tough line.

Secondly, the U.S. position on Taiwan and the South China Sea represents an affront to China’s fundamental principles. To avoid any mistakes in the U.S. strategy making, Mattis should start by listening.

Thirdly, one focus of Mattis’ visit to China is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and the U.S. needs China’s help here. Although the U.S. and the DPRK have had a meeting between heads of the two states, Trump is not optimistic about the prospects for resolution of the issue. He has invested considerable political capital in this, and if substantive progress towards denuclearization cannot be achieved, Trump’s domestic and international reputation will suffer, along with his prospects in mid-term elections and his second term. The U.S. is soberly aware of China’s role in persuading the DPRK to fulfill its denuclearization commitments, and Mattis does not want sensitive topics to further increase the tension between the two countries.

Limited Results Achieved at This Meeting

The complexity of Sino-U.S. relations determines the sensitivity and vulnerability of the military relations between the two countries. Both sides are clear that the symbolic significance of Mattis’ visit to China is greater than its practical significance. The current tension between the two countries has not been caused by a single incident. Each also understands the other’s strategic motives and intentions. Therefore, the goal is to maintain contact and communication, and understand the other’s specific position on key issues.

On the issue of South China Sea, it is impossible to reach agreement because of the broad gap and the different positions of the two sides;

On the issue of Taiwan, the U.S. is ready to heed China’s warnings, because it knows that if it breaks the red line of One China policy, the political foundation of the bilateral relations will no longer exists.

On the DPRK nuclear issue, the U.S. commentators understand that the Trump administration cannot humiliate China on the one hand and expect China to provide assistance on the other hand.

Of course, China still emphasizes its consistent position on the DPRK nuclear issue, namely, supporting the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and encouraging the U.S. and the DPRK to make joint efforts to achieve this goal as soon as possible.

Therefore, Mattis’ visit to China has not been easy – as the U.S. could foresee. “Indeed he hopes to ease the tension between the two countries. However, given the competitive nature of the bilateral relations, it is difficult to realize a substantive change to the relations between the two countries through this visit.”

On the very day when China’s Defense Minister held talks with his US counterpart, the U.S. Navy confirmed that the U.S. Reagan nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and two escort vessels had arrived in Manila, the capital of the Philippines. This was described as a part of the “regular patrol activities” of the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea.

Qin Chuan, senior researcher of Global Strategic Think Tank.

（The article represents the author’s personal opinion which does not represent the China Focus’ stance.）

Editors: Liana, Zheng Nan