Experts Highlight China’s Economic Resilience in 2024

During exclusive interviews with China.org.cn, experts from Tsinghua University have praised China’s resilience and strategic adaptability in navigating economic challenges in 2024.

Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Institute for Development Planning at Tsinghua University, and Ju Jiandong, chair professor at Tsinghua’s PBC School of Finance, said that targeted policies and structural reforms have been pivotal for the country in addressing its immediate challenges while working toward long-term strategic goals.

Dong said that overall, China has secured its economic recovery and growth this year. Major foreign institutions have reflected this optimism by revising their China 2024 growth forecasts. UBS recently increased its forecast from 4.6% to 4.8%, Goldman Sachs raised its prediction from 4.7% to 4.9%, and Nomura adjusted its projection from 4.7% to 4.8%.

But Dong also pointed out challenges facing the Chinese economy, such as insufficient domestic demand, real estate market uncertainties, and local government debt risks. To address these, the Chinese government has introduced a suite of policies to ensure sustained recovery and growth, he said. In addition to incentives for large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs that were introduced earlier this year, the country also rolled out a package of incremental policies in the latter half of 2024 to boost the economy.

“The Chinese government has placed particular emphasis on the proper timing, intensity, and effect in conducting macro regulation this year,” he said.

Looking ahead, Dong said he expected to see a strong focus on ensuring the continuity and alignment of policies and efforts between this year and the next. “Some policy measures need to maintain their momentum, and in certain areas, the efforts may need to be further intensified,” he said.

Dong also said that as China is in the process of transitioning from traditional growth drivers to new ones, it is vitally important to cultivate strategic emerging industries and future industries so that they can play a transformative role in driving economic growth.

Amid a complex external economic environment, Dong said that it is important for China to further open up, particularly institutional opening up, to align with high-standard international economic and trade rules.

In addition to macro policies, Ju Jiandong from Tsinghua’s PBC School of Finance highlighted the importance of structural reforms in driving China’s economy.

He said that the reform and development of the energy and transportation sectors can be the new growth drivers. China is leading the world in green energy and electric vehicles (EVs). Currently, the country accounts for more than 80% of global photovoltaic production capacity. Additionally, China became the first country to roll out its 10 millionth EV this year, marking a significant milestone in the global automotive industry.

Ju also said China’s vast market in the developing world is a critical advantage in navigating global economic pressures. He noted that exports to developing countries account for 50% to 60% of China’s total exports. Thus, it is important to maintain its market share in the developing world.

Further opening of China’s capital markets remains a priority to foster international financial cooperation and enable global stakeholders to benefit from China’s development dividends. Ju said that sustained financial opening up would allow China to strengthen its global economic connectivity while sharing its growth opportunities with the world.