Rocking the Boat

The Philippines has once again disturbed the peace in the South China Sea. On November 8, Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos signed acts unilaterally incorporating China’s Huangyan Dao (island) in Zhongsha Qundao (archipelago), most of the islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Qundao, and their relevant waters into the Philippines’ maritime zones. The U.S. State Department immediately expressed support.

In response, China issued a statement two days later, announcing the baselines of the territorial sea adjacent to Huangyan Dao and formally clarifying the extent of China’s territorial waters. On November 13, the Chinese military conducted combat readiness patrols over the territorial waters and airspace of Huangyan Dao and surrounding areas. According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the territorial waters of a country extend 12 nautical miles from the baseline, within which the country holds absolute sovereignty.

For over 700 years, official maps published by China have consistently marked Huangyan Dao as Chinese territory, and it has been a traditional fishing ground for Chinese fishermen. According to a series of international treaties that established the territory of the Philippines, Huangyan Dao has never been within its territorial boundaries, and the Philippine Government did not make a sovereignty claim over this island until the 1990s.

China hopes to resolve the South China Sea issue through peaceful consultations, and has repeatedly expressed its willingness to set aside disputes with neighboring countries and jointly develop the oil and gas resources in the region. It has not previously published the baselines of territorial waters for Huangyan Dao in order to avoid escalating regional tensions.

As the U.S. has gradually come to view China as its biggest strategic competitor, the South China Sea issue has become one of the key tools it uses to curb China’s development. Driven by practical interests, the Philippines has followed the U.S. foreign policy, taking an antagonistic stance against China on the Huangyan Dao issue. It has embraced the “China threat theory” fabricated by the Western world, portraying itself as a small and weak country being bullied by China.

In fact, the Philippines has consistently been the party that challenges the current situation and escalates conflicts. From the destruction of China’s boundary marker on Huangyan Dao by the Philippine Navy in 1997, to the intentional grounding of a Philippine warship on Ren’ai Jiao (reef) in 1999, and to the so-called South China Sea arbitration initiated by Philippine President Benigno Aquino III in 2013 to align with the U.S. “pivot to Asia” strategy, the Philippines’ actions have violated the fundamental consensus between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and China—peacefully resolving disputes, avoiding complicating issues, and refraining from involving third parties.

It is worth mentioning that the diplomatic relationship between China and the Philippines has not been continuously tense. After Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines in 2016, he worked to repair bilateral ties with China. During his term (2016-22), China-Philippines relations remained in a relatively healthy state. In an interview with Chinese media in April this year, Duterte said, “We didn’t argue about it; we just let it remain as it was.”

The Marcos administration, however, has broken agreements that existed between China and the Duterte government, leading to multiple confrontations between the two countries’ coast guard vessels near Ren’ai Jiao. It cannot be ruled out that Marcos’ latest actions were intended to send a signal to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that the Philippines would continue to confront China in the South China Sea in exchange for American support. However, this approach does not contribute to resolving the situation.

A case that can be referenced is the state visit to China by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto from November 8 to 10. During this visit, the two countries reached agreements including jointly developing overlapping maritime areas in the South China Sea and enhancing cooperation between their coast guards. These measures not only provide a model for managing South China Sea disputes but also open new pathways for resolving similar issues in the future.