Scientific vs. Unscientific: On the Origins of COVID-19

What should we make of growing calls to investigate U.S. Army base Fort Detrick in connection with searching for COVID-19’s origin? Is this merely an irrational attempt by Chinese interests to distract global attention from the Wuhan-origin thesis, as alleged by Western officials and media? Not at all.

There are two points to be made here. The first is that Fort Detrick is America’s leading black-box bioweapons-related research facility. It has long been involved in secret and dangerous research that has invited both real and imaginary risks and conspiracy theories, including extensively documented and somewhat credible allegations that some of its scientists have gone rogue and contributed to biological attacks or been victimized by them. It also is a federal superfund site, meaning parts of the base have experienced severe environmental pollution, and some believe this is linked to local cancer clusters.

Additionally, in August 2019, its leading laboratory lost its license to operate for eight months due to demonstrated failures of biosafety level 3 and 4–the highest in a four-tier system–protocols. The lab was not allowed to resume full operations until April 2020. Consequently, there have long been calls in and outside the U.S. for more transparency related to Fort Detrick, including investigations of its activities past and present.

Second, while these kinds of reasonable concerns have fed genuine calls for investigations of Fort Detrick from many Americans and non-Americans alike, separately, we might also view this from the Chinese side as a type of “discourse strategy”.

On the one hand, science indicates the virus most likely emerged naturally, probably in bats, and probably affected by climate change. Allegations from the U.S. that COVID-19 was deliberately engineered or mistakenly released by a laboratory in Wuhan are most likely fabrications that have exploited racist and nationalist prejudices against China and tried to shift attention away from U.S. failures to contain the outbreak by demonizing China.

On the other hand, in purely scientific terms, if the virus was engineered and deliberately released, however unlikely but as some in the U.S. Government assert, then Fort Detrick is also a possible origin, arguably more plausible than the Wuhan laboratory. Thus, if Chinese officials are forced to contend with the implausible conspiracy theory that COVID-19 was engineered, then it’s reasonable to engage that discussion by raising questions about Fort Detrick.

The author is a professor of politics at East China Normal University.