Shinzo Abe’s Self-Play

Abe Embarks on Ultra-long Term Governance

On November 1, after a special session of the House of Representatives of Japan, Shinzo Abe, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), swept to victory and was re-elected as the 98^th Prime Minister of Japan. Some see this victory as formal recognition that he is embarking on a period of “ultra-long term rule”, which means that he no longer has to concern himself with electoral politics. There may be some strategic shifts in his foreign policy, especially as far as it concerns China. However, any such speculation would be better informed if taking into full consideration the current situation.

Although Abe has been calling on both governments to improve the China-Japan relationship in his second period of governance since 2012, no real progress has yet been achieved. On the contrary, he has even stirred up conflict in the South China Sea and China-India territorial disputes, creating new friction in the China-Japan relationship. It is not hard to see that Abe carries a dagger under his cloak when dealing with China-Japan relations. Will this situation change should he be in a position of long-term governance?

The friendly face that Abe puts on, which conveys a message – “the basic reason why China-Japan relations are strained does not lie with Japan” – is intended to beguile the international community. A careful examination of his policies reveals that some “strategic adjustments” made to secure his political interests are actually anti-China strategies in disguise. His game-playing was readily apparent both before and during the election, and still continues.

Cooperation in Exchange for Votes?

Five months before the election, Abe dispatched secretary general Toshihiro Nikai, the second in command of the LDP, to attend the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. During the trip Nikai delivered a personal letter from Abe to President Xi Jinping. In the letter, Abe stated his wish that the two countries can establish a stable and friendly relationship, and achieve deeper cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative.

However, in the same month Abe delivered a speech broadcast on TV taking constitutional amendment as its theme. His talk of rectifying the provisions on self-defense forces in the constitution caused a stir in the international community. Even though the ruling party holds the majority seats in parliament and most of its members approve of amending the constitution, it is a long-term issue and there is no consensus on how this should be done. Taking advantage of circumstances, Abe decided to hold back no longer. He openly promoted the constitutional amendment and proposed hard measures. In order to realize the goal of setting up a powerful military force, he even dissolved the House of Representatives and drove a new round of elections so as to create a parliament where he could count on more support. In contrast, six months have passed since Abe voiced his hopes of cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative, but there has still been no real progress.

During the election in September, Abe attended a ceremony to celebrate the 45^th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, and China’s National Day, hosted by the Chinese Embassy in Japan. It has been 15 years since the last time a Japanese prime minister participated in such an event. Abe was not on the list of guests to begin with; his inclusion came at the suggestion of his office. It can be seen from photos of the event that Abe cut a positive figure as he hurried into the hotel where the reception was held. In his address he presented a “wish list”, including a summit session among the heads of China, Japan and South Korea within the year, an invitation to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to visit Japan, the hope that he could visit China next year, and an invitation to President Xi to visit Japan in the second half year of next year. He also clearly expressed his intention to strive for an improved China-Japan relationship.

The sudden dissolution of the House of Representatives originally put Abe in a disadvantageous position in the election. According to the opinion polls at that time, the approval rating of Yuriko Koike was hovering at 18%, quite close to the rating of the ruling party, which was 23%. However, Abe’s pro-China actions at the reception sent a message to the Japanese people that he had the ability to control flexibly and adapt rapidly to diplomatic conditions, which won him positive ratings among swing voters.

However, once the situation began to look more favorable, his election campaign message suddenly diverted to claims that it is because of the LDP that Japanese maritime self-defense forces can jointly patrol with U.S. fleet to guard the safety of its people. And obviously, one of the “threats” that the self-defense forces and the U.S. fleet should keep an eye on is China.

Whether the pro-China signals sent by Abe were a PR campaign to boost his approval rating in opinion polls, or the expression of a genuine will to make breakthroughs in China-Japan relations, they can be interpreted as an attempt by Abe to mitigate tension in the China-Japan relationship for the moment.

 What are the Prospects for the China-Japan Relationship?

In October, Abe officially declared at a high-level meeting of the LDP that the four main officers – secretary general of the party, general president of the party, chairman of Policy Research Council, and chairman of the Election Countermeasure Committee – would retain their posts after the new cabinet was formed, as would all present cabinet members. In the past, Abe has generally announced an overall renewal of membership of the cabinet and upper echelons of the party in accordance with the future policies he plans. Hence the unchanged membership this time sends a strong signal to the outside world that Abe expects to continue his former policies, which also means the duplicitous game he is playing in China-Japan relations will continue.

The unchanged cabinet still has a strong right-wing color, and contains plenty of veterans in dealing China-Japan relations. Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, for example, went directly to Google in 2010 and asked the company to mark the Diaoyu Islands as the “Senkaku islands” on the Japanese version of Google map, in order to create an international impact. He also caused deliberate harm to China’s international image by making an issue of the Chinese Embassy purchasing land in Tokyo to build its offices. A cabinet like this is likely to create further difficulties in the China-Japan relationship in the future.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Da Nang, Vietnam on November 11, after the 19^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Xi pointed out that as China and Japan are neighbors and major economies both in Asia and the world, a stable development of China-Japan relationship conforms to the interests of both sides and also has an important influence on the region and the world at large. The two sides should, bearing in mind the fundamental interests of the two peoples, correctly grasp the general direction of peace, friendship and cooperation, and work to enable bilateral relations to keep improving and developing for the better through unremitting efforts and accumulating positive factors.

Abe extended his congratulations on the success of the 19th National Congress of the CPC, which was held last month, and on Xi’s re-election as general secretary of the CPC Central Committee.

He said the Japanese side is willing to work with China to push for the development of the strategic mutually-beneficial relationship between the two countries by marking the 40th anniversary of the signing of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship next year.

We need to wait and see if Abe’s government can live up to its words, take solid actions to reduce the tension in the China-Japan relationship. The stable telationship between China and Japan will be good for the stability in  the Asian-Pacific region as a whole.

（Jiang Feng, Chief Editor of Japan New Overseas Chinese News）