What to Expect at the China, Japan, ROK Summit

Leaders from China, Japan and the ROK will meet in Seoul on May 26-27 for a trilateral summit, marking the first gathering of the three nations’ top officials since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ROK President Yoon Suk Yeol is set to host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

Much has happened since the last trilateral summit that took place in Chengdu, China in December 2019, including China’s efforts to advance trade and peace in the Middle East, the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and ROK’s adjustments to domestic security laws that allow for penalties against those promoting favorable news about the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

The role of the U.S. military in the region, particularly its naval exercises in the South China Sea and its substantial military presence in Japan, is also a key concern for countries in the area.

For President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida, the summit arrives at a crucial juncture. Yoon’s approval ratings hover around 40%, although they have been gradually improving. In 2022, he drew criticism from Chinese officials for claiming that there was no radiation leak at the damaged Fukushima power plant “because the reactors themselves did not collapse.” China has justifiably and repeatedly expressed concerns about the safety of Pacific Ocean waters due to the disaster and Japan’s decision to discharge contaminated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima power plant into the ocean. Despite this, Yoon has sought to strengthen ROK-China relations while also demonstrating his commitment to being a strong ally of the U.S.

Kishida faces an even more precarious domestic position due to a lingering fundraising scandal within his Liberal Democratic Party. A recent poll found that only one in four Japanese citizens view him favorably. The scandal-ridden Kishida has openly expressed enthusiasm about the U.S. leadership, and Japan has further tilted in favor of the U.S. on a number of sensitive issues that are important to China. This, combined with other issues, including Chinese displeasure over Japan’s decision to release contaminated radioactive wastewater into the ocean, has strained Japan-China relations. Kishida and Chinese President Xi Jinping met briefly at the APEC summit late last year, marking their first conversation in roughly a year. Speaking later, Kishida said, “I feel we once again succeeded in having frank and constructive discussions from a broad perspective.” He added, “We discussed a wide range of matters that included bilateral cooperation, namely the Japan-China High-Level Economic Dialogue and a Japan-China dialogue on export controls; a cooperative relationship on global issues; interpersonal exchanges; and regional issues.”

The U.S. may have expressed hope for positive results from the upcoming summit, but it by no means wants to see close ties between the three nations. A State Department spokesperson offered a rather measured comment, saying, “The United States respects the ability of nations to make sovereign decisions in the best interests of their people.” While some may have appreciated more enthusiasm from Washington, the language is believed to be the best from the stakeholder.

Trade is expected to be a prominent topic on the summit’s agenda. However, security issues, technology, and countering future pandemics will also likely be important to the nations’ representatives.

Data from 2022 underscores the importance of trade among the three nations. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, China and the ROK each exported $150 billion in goods to the other that year. Meanwhile, China exported $178 billion in goods to Japan, which reciprocated by sending $135 billion to China. ROK’s exports to Japan totaled $30 billion, while Japan’s exports to ROK exceeded $50 billion. The three nations clearly value each other as allies in sustaining their domestic economies.

It is noteworthy that the Asia Pacific is driving the global economic train this year. The International Monetary Fund estimates GDP growth at 4.5% throughout the region in 2024. Chinese officials have pegged domestic growth this year at roughly 5%, dwarfing ROK (2.2%) and Japan (0.8%). As China continues to shift to high-quality development with a special emphasis on solar power, electric vehicles, and lithium batteries, the ROK and Japan will be keen to see how their manufacturing sectors can align. Therefore, it will be important to observe whether a trilateral free trade agreement will be signed, as attempts to finalize such an agreement since 2019 have been unsuccessful.

At least one analyst believes that easing tensions along the Korean Peninsula will be a central focus. Japan and the ROK are likely to press China to use its leverage to encourage the DPRK to reduce missile tests and bellicose language. In response, China might counter that it would like to see Japan and the ROK back off from strengthening relations with the U.S. Earlier this month, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told his ROK counterpart that “China-ROK relations have been facing difficulties and challenges,” understandably due to Washington’s influence.

The summit is the latest in a series of rapid-fire international gatherings. Most recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing, where he met President Xi, dominated global headlines. The two leaders affirmed the importance of their bilateral relationship, with President Xi noting that “China and Russia will always remain committed to their founding purpose and jointly shoulder responsibility to create more benefits for their peoples and make due contribution to global security and stability.”

Last month, Prime Minister Kishida visited the U.S., and about a year ago, President Yoon made a similar trip to Washington. These events demonstrate that whatever the new normal is after the COVID-19 pandemic, it will include the necessary gatherings of world leaders.

As Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin has said, China, Japan and the ROK are neighbors and major economies in Asia and the world, and China hopes that the forthcoming summit will inject new impetus into the trilateral cooperation and provide better ways toward mutual benefit for the three countries. He has also assured that China stands ready to work with the other two nations to implement the Trilateral Cooperation Vision for the Next Decade and other important common understandings, deepen economic and trade, sci-tech and cultural cooperation to advance regional economic integration in East Asia and promote regional and global peace, stability and prosperity.

Spokesmen from Japan and the ROK have also made positive remarks about the summit. It can therefore be assumed that when the three leaders meet, such matters as peace, stability, cooperation and prosperity will be on each of their minds. The challenge is to find the path to bring those ideals to life.